Bears Bound in Ljubljana Stock Exchange
STA
The Slovenian capital market has been booming over the last few weeks, chiefly as a result of the almost certain takeover of the Ljubljana-based pharmaceutical company Lek by the Swiss multinational Novartis.
Investors besiege the exchange as everyone wants a piece of the pie. Moreover, a boost in demand has sent other Slovenian blue chips skywards. The benchmark index SBI 20 gained as many as 204 points or 6.3% in the week from October 16 to 23 and an amazing 542.33 points, or almost 19% since August 22, a day before Novartis published its takeover bid on Lek.
Market observers believe that share prices will continue to grow in the following days, but not as fast as in the past weeks. Andraž Grum of bank Abanka maintains that current prices are rather high, but he expects a further rise in the shares of the other Slovenian pharmaceutical company Krka, which will likely benefit from the proceeds of the sale of Lek shares. Matej Tomažin of the brokerage firm Ilirika agrees that there is little chance of substantial growth in shares. It would be in his opinion sheer speculation to say how far SBI 20 would reach.
Mili Kus, advisor to the board of the Celje-based brokerage BPH, advised caution given the current situation on the market, especially for inexperienced investors whose expectations are too high. "The prices of shares of Slovenian companies are too high now compared to the shares of their rivals abroad," Kus said. According to her, a further increase in prices could only be encouraged by a new major takeover.
The overall trading on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange in September amounted to EUR 181.7m, up EUR 14.9m from a month before and EUR 24.9m up from September 2001. Turnover was up 25% in the first nine months of the year over the same period last year. The capitalisation of the whole securities market amounted to EUR 8.72bn, up 2.4% over August. The highest growth was recorded in the capitalisation of pension vouchers (up 22.6%). Capitalisation of shares rose by 3.7% and that of bonds by 1.3%. Investment funds saw a 1.7% drop in capitalisation. The market capitalisation of all shares at the end of September equalled EUR 5.3m or 26.5% of the GDP in 2001.